Britain's competition regulator has twice promised, in June and again in August, to look harder at why UK petrol and diesel margins stay historically high. Both promises gave the same deadline, 'the autumn'; it is now half gone, with no review in sight.
Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
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In short. The Competition and Markets Authority's road fuel monitoring report for June 2026 said that, "as it is now three years since we completed our market study," it would "conduct a targeted update to that work that will include a more detailed assessment of the competitiveness of current retailer pricing strategies across the market," with the results expected "in the autumn" (page 29) [[2]]. Its August 2026 report repeats the same commitment in near-identical words: "we are conducting a targeted update to our 2023 market study that will include a more detailed assessment of the competitiveness of retailer pricing strategies across the market," again "in the autumn" (page 26) [[1]]. Neither report gives a narrower date than the season. As of this check, the CMA's own publications list for the scheme shows nothing newer than the August report (page checked 18 October 2026) [[4]], and autumn is roughly half over. A second finding: the margin the CMA is reviewing has been "historically high" by its own description since its 2023 market study, running at a 9.3% average for 2025 (page 12) [[2]] and still "at or above" that level through May and June 2026 (page 6) [[1]], with the CMA's response each time being to record concern and defer a fuller look. Two documented mistakes: four stars.
Drivers who filled up over the summer were paying prices the Competition and Markets Authority's own data says had not fully caught up with falling wholesale costs. The regulator has been monitoring the road fuel market closely since the Middle East conflict began pushing wholesale prices up in February 2026, publishing an enhanced monitoring report roughly every two months. Each one records the same unresolved question: whether UK forecourt margins, already flagged as too high in the CMA's 2023 market study, are staying high because of genuine cost pressure or because competition between retailers still is not working. Twice now, the CMA has told the public it would answer that question properly, and named the same season both times.
The same promise, in the same words, two reports apart
The June 2026 report's concluding section is explicit about what comes next. Having set out its findings on prices and margins through April, it states: "Alongside this, as it is now three years since we completed our market study and given our ongoing concerns about weak price competition in the sector, we will conduct a targeted update to that work that will include a more detailed assessment of the competitiveness of retailer pricing strategies across the market. We expect to publish the results of that assessment in the autumn, to allow for an assessment of the impact of the introduction of the Fuel Finder scheme" (page 29) [[2]]. The same undertaking appears earlier in the report's summary, in near-identical wording (page 4) [[2]].
Two and a half months later, the August report's own concluding section says this: "We are therefore conducting a targeted update to our 2023 market study that will include a more detailed assessment of the competitiveness of retailer pricing strategies across the market. We expect to publish the results of that assessment in the autumn, to allow for a fuller assessment of the impact of the introduction of the Fuel Finder scheme" (page 26) [[1]]. Set the two passages side by side and the only substantive changes are "we will conduct" becoming "we are conducting," and "an assessment" becoming "a fuller assessment." The deadline is untouched: still "the autumn," with no month, week or milestone attached to it in either document.
The CMA's own publications list for the road fuel scheme, checked directly rather than via search, shows the August 2026 report as the newest item; nothing has been added since [[4]]. The most recent official road fuel news from the CMA, also checked directly, is the press release accompanying that same August report [[3]]. Autumn, on any UK definition, began in September and has at least six more weeks left to run. But a reader who took the June report at its word had reason to expect the "targeted update" before the August report arrived at all, since that report's own job, by its own account, was partly to deliver on the June promise. Instead, the August report's conclusion restates the June promise rather than fulfils it.
A margin the CMA has called historically high for a year, with no change recorded
The second thread running through both reports is what, exactly, the promised assessment is meant to explain. The June report states plainly that the CMA's monitoring "to date" has "continued to observe margins for supermarket and non-supermarket retailers that are historically high, indicating that competition has not strengthened since our market study" (page 11) [[2]]. It quantifies this: average fuel gross profit margins fell slightly in early 2026 "to reach 8.0%, compared to a historically high average annual margin of 9.3% for 2025" (page 12) [[2]].
The August report tracks the same measure through May and June 2026 and finds no improvement: "retailer margins during the period from March to June have continued to be at or above the historically high level observed in 2025" (page 6) [[1]]. It goes further, naming the mechanism it suspects: "we are concerned that the continued use of passive pricing strategies by the majority of retailers is causing sustained high margins," noting that several non-supermarket retailers gained a competitive advantage when wholesale diesel costs fell in May and June but did not pass the saving on to drivers quickly enough to pressure rivals (page 6) [[1]]. That is the CMA's own evidence that the thing its market study warned about in 2023, weak price competition sustaining high margins, was still visible in its own data three years on, with no corrective step taken beyond monitoring and the Fuel Finder price-comparison scheme.
Credit where due
The reports are not evasive about any of this. Both state plainly, in their own numbered paragraphs rather than buried in a footnote, that margins remain historically high and that the CMA has not found evidence retailers are gaming the crisis, a finding that cuts against the regulator's own commercial incentive to find wrongdoing [[1]][[2]]. The Fuel Finder compliance figures in the August report are specific and checkable: 97% of UK petrol stations registered, accounting for 99% of fuel sold, 1,166 compliance letters sent and 53 compliance notices issued, with no financial penalties yet needed because registration issues are "generally resolved quickly through informal engagement" (page 8) [[1]]. That is a transparent account of a scheme working largely as designed on registration, even where the harder question, pricing behaviour, remains open.
The claims, tested
| The document's own words | What the record shows | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026: "we will conduct a targeted update ... We expect to publish the results of that assessment in the autumn" (page 29) [[2]] | August 2026, two and a half months later: "we are conducting a targeted update ... We expect to publish the results of that assessment in the autumn" (page 26) [[1]]. Same season, no narrower date, no published update as of 18 October 2026 [[4]] | The promise was repeated, not progressed; neither report commits to a date more specific than a season, and the CMA's own publications list shows nothing delivered yet |
| "Margins ... are historically high, indicating that competition has not strengthened since our market study" (June 2026, page 11) [[2]] | "Retailer margins ... have continued to be at or above the historically high level observed in 2025" (August 2026, page 6) [[1]] | The CMA's own data shows the condition its 2023 study flagged as a competition failure is unchanged a year into renewed monitoring; the response recorded in both reports is to defer a deeper assessment, not to act on it |
Verdict
Four stars, from two documented mistakes, both of them visible in the CMA's own words rather than hidden. The regulator has been admirably specific about what it has found: margins too high, some retailers slow to pass on falling wholesale diesel costs, no evidence of crisis profiteering. It has been far less specific about when its own promised fix, a deeper look at whether competition itself is the problem, will actually appear. Telling drivers twice, three months apart, that the answer is coming "in the autumn" is not a date. It is a season, and the CMA has now spent most of one without publishing it.
The star score counts two documented mistakes: the CMA's June 2026 and August 2026 road fuel monitoring reports each promise a "targeted update" to its 2023 market study, including "a more detailed assessment of the competitiveness of retailer pricing strategies," due "in the autumn", repeated in near-identical wording two and a half months apart with no narrower date given either time, and, as of 18 October 2026, no such update appears on the CMA's own publications list for the scheme; and the margin level both reports describe as "historically high" (a 9.3% average for 2025) is recorded as unchanged or worse through May and June 2026, with the CMA's documented response being to record concern and defer a fuller assessment rather than take or recommend a corrective step. Two falls in the 1 to 3 band: four stars; the bands are on the ratings page. This piece makes no finding that the CMA's monitoring work itself is inadequate or that retailers have broken any rule; the CMA's own reports state plainly that no evidence of crisis profiteering was found. The finding is narrower: a specific, twice-repeated commitment to a named piece of further work has not been met to any date more precise than a season, and that season is now more than half over. Checked directly against the CMA's June 2026 and August 2026 enhanced road fuel monitoring reports, its 18 August 2026 press release and its road fuel monitoring and enforcement collection page (all fetched 18 October 2026).
Sources
- Enhanced road fuel monitoring report: August 2026, Competition and Markets Authority, published 18 August 2026
- Enhanced road fuel monitoring report: June 2026, Competition and Markets Authority, published 1 June 2026
- CMA publishes latest monitoring update on road fuel market, Competition and Markets Authority, published 18 August 2026
- Road fuel monitoring and enforcement, Competition and Markets Authority, collection page